Benchmarking Forecasting Agents on Yesterday's Tomorrows

arXiv cs.AINovember 2, 2026en

arXiv:2610.40940v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Digital agents can now gather and organize information, reason over it, and use tools to complete complex tasks. Forecasting puts all of these abilities to the test: it requires integrating incomplete evidence, inferring causal drivers, and committing to calibrated probabilistic judgments. Existing benchmarks are poorly suited to measuring and improving this ability. Live benchmarks provide feedback only after events resolve, so every evaluation cycle waits on the calendar; fixed-corpus evaluations return results immediately but confine research to pre-collected documents. We introduce FABench, a scalable backtesting environment for Forecasting

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