From SEC Filings to Financial Signals: Evaluating LLMs on Stock Market Reactions and Analyst Forecasts

arXiv cs.AIOctober 20, 2026en

arXiv:2610.24268v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Form 10-Q MD&A sections combine long-form management narrative with accounting and forward-looking information. Benchmarks for financial filings commonly evaluate question answering or numerical reasoning, leaving unclear whether outputs from large language models (LLMs) align with market and analyst outcomes. We evaluate prompted, zero-shot outputs from 13 general-purpose and finance-specialized LLMs on 45,964 Form 10-Q filing events from 2001 to 2024, linking MD&A text to cross-sectional fundamental ranks, pre-filing analyst forecasts, and realized abnormal returns. The evaluation covers return ranking under five controlled information views

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