Joint upper-bound coverage and route-choice utility: an empirical evaluation on two urban proxy tasks

arXiv cs.AIOctober 7, 2026en

arXiv cs.AI

AI Global Wire

arXiv:2610.06995v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Whether more accurate traffic forecasts or higher uncertainty coverage improve route decisions is unclear. We evaluate this question with a frozen protocol that separates speed error, joint candidate path upper bound coverage, route selection, and realized loss. Using processed road speed data from Beijing and Chengdu, we construct offline proxy tasks with 150 origin destination pairs, three candidate paths, and 14 test days per city. We compare raw 90th percentile path time bounds with jointly calibrated upper bounds under minimum bound route choice. Joint coverage rises from 83.19% to 92.26% in Beijing M1, from 75.14% to 88.33% in Chengdu M1,

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