Learned Control Variates for Rare Grid-Outage Estimation at Electric Vehicle Charging Stations

arXiv cs.AIOctober 21, 2026en

arXiv:2610.27159v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Public charging of electric vehicles (EVs) adds a large and synchronized load to the distribution feeders. In most networks, it is rare to overload a feeder at the same time. When it does happen, the consequences can be severe: an overloaded feeder stresses its transformers and can trigger cascading outages across a city. Planners who design for high reliability therefore need to estimate very small outage probabilities. To that end, plain Monte Carlo estimation with an expensive grid simulator can require a prohibitively large number of runs for this task. To reduce the number of runs, we propose a control variate (CV) built from a learned cla

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