PGP-Clinical-TimeKAN: Prior-Guided Joint Probabilistic Forecasting of Clinical Trajectories

arXiv cs.AISeptember 9, 2026en

arXiv:2609.05488v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Clinical deterioration unfolds through coupled, partially observed trajectories, not a single diagnostic label. We introduce PGP-Clinical-TimeKAN, a trajectory-first framework for joint probabilistic forecasting of multivariate physiology. It combines missingness-aware temporal encoders, a soft organ-system prior, patient-specific relations, nonlinear Kolmogorov-Arnold messages, and a low-rank multivariate Student-t head. We evaluate 24-hour histories and six-hour forecasts on a frozen MIMIC-IV-derived cohort of 6,882 patients and 54,694 windows. Across five seeds and 13 models, PGP-Clinical-TimeKAN obtains the second-lowest normalized MAE (0.3

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