QUAL: Quantile Alignment Improves Zero-Shot Time-Series Foundation Models

arXiv cs.AINovember 2, 2026en

arXiv cs.AI

AI Global Wire

arXiv:2610.41100v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time-series foundation models (TSFMs) provide zero-shot forecasts for unseen series, but their accuracy varies across datasets. Combining several models can reduce this variability, yet zero-shot deployment provides no target labels for selecting or weighting them. We find that a model pool is useful not only as a final ensemble, but also as a probability reference for transforming each member forecast. Aligning quantiles through this pool-relative reference improves every member forecast in aggregate. Motivated by this finding, we propose QUAL (Quantile alignment), a simple label-free framework for improving and combining diverse TSFMs. QUAL f

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