When Should Forecasting Agents Reason? Behavioral Stress Tests for Reliability Routing

arXiv cs.AISeptember 25, 2026en

arXiv:2609.28475v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Forecasting agents increasingly combine language-model reasoning, retrieval, ensembling, and calibration, but it remains unclear when each behavior should be trusted. We study this question on ForecastBench-style binary forecasting tasks, treating the choice to retrieve, reason, defer to a market prior, or use a historical analog as an observable agent behavior rather than a hidden implementation detail. Our central finding is that mechanism choice is source-dependent: structured analogs dominate for some data-generating processes, while market/crowd-style and conservative baselines are better for others. We introduce ReliabilityRoute, a struct

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