Agent Policy-Value Audit: Separating Transition Composition from Event Selection in Financial LLM Agents

arXiv cs.AIOctober 6, 2026en

arXiv:2610.04040v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Financial LLM agents are often evaluated by comparing their end-to-end returns with those of a baseline and testing the paired difference against zero. This measures whether deploying the agent changes realized performance, but it does not isolate event-selection skill. An agent that frequently changes positions from flat to long can earn a positive paired return from an upward-drifting event pool even when it selects events at random. We propose the Agent Policy-Value Audit, which holds fixed the observed count of each ordered action-change type and randomly reassigns them across eligible events. The average payoff from these reassignments is

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