From Single-Actor Environments to Multi-Actor Event Worlds: Can LLMs Be Event World Models?

arXiv cs.AIOctober 23, 2026en

arXiv:2610.30488v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: World models help agents assess the consequences of their actions before acting. Many real systems, however, involve multiple actors who make their own decisions, can evolve even when the agent takes no action, and are only partially observed through event logs. We formalize these systems as event worlds and ask whether large language models can predict future observations from the log and the agent's proposed actions. We build complementary benchmarks from human Diplomacy games and real Polymarket trades. Our hierarchical framework compares prediction with and without other actors' actions, then tests multi-step rollouts, predictions for actio

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