The Oligarch Barely Steers Model Collapse in Multi-Model Ecosystems

arXiv cs.AISeptember 12, 2026en

arXiv:2609.11146v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: AI-generated text is flowing back into the training corpora of the next generation of models. Recursive training on it drives model collapse, and recent work extends the setting to many models feeding one another -- but almost always with the market split evenly, while real generative AI is an oligopoly. Concentration raises two worries: fewer, more uniform sources may make collapse faster, and later models may be dragged toward the oligarch's output. We test both in controlled ecosystems: 13 open 1--4B models form natural ecosystems of 3 to 13 players, plus an injected probe that pushes the top share to 90%; each generation, every model's outp

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