Breaking Predictions Is Not Enough: Specified-Foil Counterfactuals for Temporal Graphs

arXiv cs.AISeptember 12, 2026en

arXiv:2609.11170v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Temporal graph counterfactual explanations typically change past events to change or invalidate an original prediction, while leaving its replacement unspecified. Yet a user facing a predicted outcome often asks which past conditions would make a particular alternative occur instead. We formulate this destination-specific question as the Specified-Foil Counterfactual: given an original prediction A and a foil B fixed before search, find a low-cost past-event intervention under which the same predictor selects B as top-ranked. Our trace-guided intervention search contrasts the completed execution of A with a reconstructed incomplete execution of

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